Details

localized actionable evacuation plans, coping capacities and resilience

Risk reduction and community resilience are important concepts, as they point out the public's beliefs, attitudes, and potential adoption of effective mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies. This research study intends to provide insights into Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) and climate change risk reduction, community resilience, and capacity building in an integrated manner. This study focuses on Lahaul and Spiti, Himachal Pradesh, a glaciated cold-desert region shaped by winter snowfall. Major valley glaciers include Bara Shigri and Chhota Shigri, with steep elevations reaching 6,300 meters and extensive debris-covered lower ablation zones. GLOF risk in Lahaul and Spiti is rising as glacier retreat expands unstable lakes. Himachal Pradesh Centre on Climate Change identified 67 vulnerable lakes, while disaster, climate, mitigation, and resilience agencies recognize threats to communities. This study mainly revolves around risk reduction, mitigation, resilience, and capacity-building measures through communication strategies for vulnerable communities in case of a possible outburst of floods. The study investigates the risk perception of the communities residing in the region, the early warning and community mobilization, awareness, preparedness planning, and community capacity building. The study will identify highly residential settlements and potential flood-prone zones to facilitate early preparedness, localized actionable evacuation plans, coping capacities, and resilience in the cases of GLOF events.

Mission & Objectives

How climate change and risk perceptions are interrelated

The broader objectives of the Study are: [1] Understanding hazard, exposure, and vulnerability for GLOF risk reduction. [2] Scientific assessment of glacial lakes, downstream settlements, and critical infrastructure to identify high-risk areas and guide preparedness planning for mitigation and resilience [3] To explore and assess Early Warning & Community Mobilization, awareness, preparedness planning and community capacity building [4] Designing last-mile communication strategies using multiple channels such as sirens, mobile alerts, and local communication methods. [5] Strengthening collaboration with scientific institutions and ensuring coordinated action among state departments to improve early warning dissemination, evacuation planning, and community response capacity.

Environmental Commitments

last-mile communication strategies,early warning dissemination, evacuation planning, and community response capacity

Lahaul and Spiti is a heavily glaciated cold desert mountain region in Himachal Pradesh, India, featuring prominent valley glaciers, lateral moraines, and a monsoon-arid transition climate. Located in a monsoon-arid transition zone where accumulation is driven heavily by winter Western Disturbances (WDs) and marginally by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), the region is home to massive valley glaciers like Bara Shigri Glacier, the largest in Himachal Pradesh, spanning over 126 km2 and 27.7 km long, Chhota Shigri Glacier, Patsio and Hamtah. The region features steep elevation gradients (ranging from 3,900 meters at snouts to over 6,300 meters at headwalls with extensive debris cover in the lower ablation zones. GLOF risks in Lahaul and Spiti have escalated significantly in recent times, driven by accelerated glacier retreat that has expanded the number and volume of unstable glacial lakes. State-wide monitoring by the Himachal Pradesh Centre on Climate Change has identified 67 vulnerable glacial lakes across the region. Various agencies working in field of disaster management, climate change impacts, mitigation and resilience have identified GLOFs as a potential threat to the communities living in the mountain areas of Lahaul and Spiti region.

Outcomes / Results

community response capacity can be strengthened through training, clearly assigned responsibilities

Evacuation planning should couple scientific flood modeling with participatory mapping of routes, awareness, assembly locations, and potential access constraints (Liu et al., 2018; Weyrich et al., 2018). For GLOF inundation and travel-time modeling into settlement-level procedures that identify who must evacuate (zoning), when movement should begin, which routes and alternative routes remain outside expected flood zones, and where safe assembly areas are located (Jain et al., 2025; Taloor et al., 2026). In general, community response capacity can be strengthened through training, clearly assigned responsibilities, and exercises that test message interpretation and coordinated action (Mahdi et al., 2023; Qiu et al., 2023). Such assessment distinguishes improved communication coverage from demonstrated response capacity and identifies operational bottlenecks before an actual GLOF emergency occurs in the Himalayan region.

Risks

The relationship between risk perception and risk reduction is strong

Risk communication should strengthen threat understanding and confidence that timely action can reduce harm. It shapes climate change and GLOF risk perceptions through message framing, source credibility, psychological distance, and efficacy information (Chu & Yang, 2020; Maiella et al., 2020). Locally specific information can make abstract climate threats concrete, while transparent uncertainty communication acknowledges potential hazards. However, risk information alone cannot support protective responses; communication should build both self-efficacy—the perceived capacity to act—and response efficacy—the belief that protective actions are effective (Poortvliet et al., 2020). In the Himalayan context, this requires clear warnings, practical preparedness measures, community awareness, early warning, and institutional coordination (Shah & Ishtiaque, 2025). Communication effectiveness should therefore be assessed through comprehension, trust, efficacy beliefs, and preparedness, not only information dissemination.

Industry / Context

Current anthropogenic climate change increases the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), as global warming accelerates glacier recession and contributes to the rapid formation and expansion of glacial lakes (Zhong et al., 2021). When higher global temperatures combine with slope, moraine dam stability, lake geometry, ice or rock avalanches, and seismicity, susceptibility increases (Taylor et al., 2023; Allen et al., 2022; Khadka et al., 2021; Shugar et al., 2021). Communities, particularly those downstream, contribute little to global warming yet face disproportionate exposure, vulnerability, and GLOF risk (Ahmed, 2025; Taylor et al., 2023). Visible environmental changes and flood incidents are increasing in high-mountain regions. Recent cases, such as the massive 2026 flash flood in Nepal's Bhote Koshi River beginning in the high-altitude border areas of Rasuwa District, show that GLOFs are rare but highly catastrophic and may become more frequent as warming continues (Zhang et al., 2025; Taylor et al., 2023). Limited experience with GLOFs compared to other floods worldwide reduces awareness of its magnitude. Distance from lakes, limited warning access, uncertainty, and warnings that lack actionable guidance or use technical language affect knowledge and preparedness in the most vulnerable communities. (Ahmed, 2025; Zhang et al., 2023; Gurung et al., 2021). Hence, GLOF adaptation strategies should be identified as combining structural interventions, including lake-level lowering, drainage channels, and protective infrastructure, with non-structural measures such as monitoring, early-warning systems, risk communication, evacuation planning, risk awareness, and institutional coordination (Qiu et al., 2023; Allen et al., 2022; Khadka et al., 2021; Steynor et al., 2021).

Hypothesis & Methodology

Cross-sectional and integrated research approach

With a cross-sectional and integrated research approach, the study would like to bridge the research gap by investigating climate change and GLOF risks perceived by the communities living the Lahaul and Spiti region of western Himalayas. The study will approach a mixed-method participatory framework combining scientific modelling with local stakeholder engagement. Community-based mapping will be conducted to identify local vulnerabilities, safe zones and evacuation routes and participatory workshops and visual tools will be used to help the communities to define their own risk narratives and local adaptation priorities. Locally relevant risk reduction protocols and early warning interpretation frameworks will be co-developed with the help of the local communities. The study will also look into the effective use of non-structural readiness through mock drills, simulation exercises, and training programs for community mobilization, awareness, preparedness planning and community capacity building.

Project Aims

Community capacity building and resilience

Evidence shows that risk assessment, perception and reduction can affect climate change adaptation and resilience measures and strategies and could help the local communities to prepare themselves to cope and recover from disaster events. Since, these communities are living in isolated and hazardous locations, they have higher risk perceptions. This provides a rationale to conduct this study to know about the climate change risk perception of the communities living in mountainous areas and how last-mile communication strategies would help them to respond to climate change and disaster events by adopting the best mitigation and resilience measures. With a cross-sectional and integrated research approach, the study would like to bridge the research gap by investigating climate change and GLOF risks perceived by the communities living the Lahaul and Spiti region of western Himalayas. The study will approach a mixed-method participatory framework combining scientific modelling with local stakeholder engagement. Community-based mapping will be conducted to identify local vulnerabilities, safe zones and evacuation routes and participatory workshops and visual tools will be used to help the communities to define their own risk narratives and local adaptation priorities. Locally relevant risk reduction protocols and early warning interpretation frameworks will be co-developed with the help of the local communities. The study will also look into the effective use of non-structural readiness through mock drills, simulation exercises, and training programs for community mobilization, awareness, preparedness planning and community capacity building.